CAN CORONA BRING DOWN 'COMMUNIST' CHINA?

In 2006, Mikhail Gorbachev, the last General Secretary of the Soviet Communist Party, opined that “the disaster at Chernobyl in 1986 was perhaps the real cause of the collapse of the Soviet Union five years later.” He explained that “The Chernobyl disaster opened the possibility of much greater freedom of expression, to the point that the system as we knew it could no longer continue.” With China reeling from the Coronavirus, let’s see if this could be the Chernobyl moment of 'Communist' China.

CHERNOBYL BROUGHT DOWN USSR

Mikhail Gorbachev

The Chernobyl nuclear disaster took place at a time when the rigid foundations of the Soviet system began to be challenged at various levels. First, there was the new Soviet leader who, as the joke had it at the time, was the first in a long time who could walk and talk unaided. Mikhail Gorbachev had been in power for a little over a year. He shook not just the hierarchy of the Communist Party, but also allowed, even encouraged debate about subjects that previously had been taboo. The economy, pluralism of thought and environment were top of the agenda. Little did he know that Chernobyl would take the debate and public activism to a completely new level.

All of a sudden, the USSR witnessed a new phenomenon - the grassroots, green movement. In Ukraine and Belarus, the countries most affected by Chernobyl, these movements gained strength rapidly. They were led not by party bureaucrats but by writers, students, doctors and scientists. And the Communist Party found itself in the glare of harsh, critical scrutiny. People could not forgive the authorities for their deceit about the levels of radiation, confusing health advice and their political callousness. A classic example was their refusal to cancel the May Day rally in Kiev (or Kyiv) and their demand that children be brought into the streets to show that Kiev was safe. When people later learned that some of the children of the party’s elite had been flown out of Kiev, they were devastated.

Rallies in Ukraine organized by the green groups gathered tens of thousands of protesters. Slowly but surely their slogans started to change, as Chernobyl revealed itself as the symptom of a corrupt and failing system rather than a technological catastrophe. Its major role was in highlighting the systematic failures of the government, and more importantly, the failure to establish trust between the government and the people of the USSR. The failure of trust may have a contributing factor, but it is questionable whether it was, indeed, the main cause of the breakdown of the USSR. It was fear that filled the void of the absence of ideology and trust as the foundation for the Soviet state, the loosening of which had a detrimental effect on the system.

CHERNOBYL-CORONA, HOW DO THEY COMPARE?

Now, compare it with the current situation in China. In some ways, it is a perfect storm — the Coronavirus has added to China's 2019 misfortunes. Think of the past year: months of unrelenting unrest in Hong Kong; Taiwan re-electing a pro-independence government that rejects mainland China's control; the worst economic growth figures in almost 30 years; and a bruising trade war with the United States.

Hong Kong protests - 2019

The pandemic made everything even worse. Lack of transparency and honesty were the regime’s greatest weaknesses in fighting COVID-19. The CPC (Communist Party of China) was already infamous for covering up the party’s role in disasters, such as earthquakes and train accidents, earlier. The regime also lost credibility attempting to limit the political fall-out during the SARS crisis.

The Chinese are truly outraged over the authorities’ early efforts to suppress information about the new virus, including the fact that it can be transmitted among humans. Nowhere was this more apparent than in the uproar over the Feb. 7 announcement that the Wuhan-based doctor Li Wenliang, whom the local authorities accused of “rumor-mongering” when he attempted to warn his colleagues about the Coronavirus back in December, had died of it

Dr. Li Wenliang

With China’s censorship apparatus temporarily weakened, even official newspapers printed the news of Li’s death on their front pages. And business leaders, a typically apolitical group, have denounced the conduct of the Wuhan authorities and demanded accountability.

Several tech-savvy volunteers analyzed data from the Wuhan Red Cross and the Wuhan Charity General Association, two government-backed charities that controlled donations meant to help fight the outbreak. They found that the organizations had funneled more money and masks to government offices than to hospitals, and they publicized the details on social media. Some have set up “cyber-graveyards” to compile news and commentary related to the virus that have been scrubbed off the internet by government censors. At several universities, students organized mass campaigns on social media to solicit donations for hospitals in Wuhan, posting testimonials from doctors and nurses describing a lack of supplies.

Also Read: EXACTLY HOW IS CHINA RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC?

WHY IT MAY BRING DOWN

Though Xi Jinping has apparently regained his aura as a dominant leader, the political fallout is likely to be very serious. The huge uproar that prevailed those moments of relative cyber-freedom is deeply worrying to the CPC. It proved that even a momentary lapse in the censorship can unleash the bottled-up anti-regime sentiment. One shudders to think what might happen to the CPC’s hold on power if the Chinese were able to speak freely for a few months, not just a couple of weeks.

The most consequential political upshot of the COVID-19 outbreak may well be the erosion of support for the CPC among China’s urban middle class. Not only have their lives been severely disrupted by the epidemic and response; they have been made acutely aware of just how helpless they are under a regime that prizes secrecy and its own power over public health and welfare.

All this lack of trust, and erosion in the confidence on the govt. may well lead to the fall of “Communist” China.

AND WHY IT MAY NOT

Xi's interpretation of Soviet history is very different from Gorbachev’s. In January 2013, Xi gave a foundational speech to his Party’s (CPC) elite, in which he described his fundamental view of the world and his vision for China’s future. In the middle of his remarks, he asked the audience a rhetorical question: “Why did the Communist Party of the Soviet Union fall to pieces?” He answered his own question declaring that Moscow had failed to uphold its founding ideology, causing the apparatus of the Soviet state to disintegrate. “In the end” Xi is quoted as saying, “nobody was a real man, nobody came out to resist.” Taken together, these remarks suggest that the CPC can avoid the fate of its Soviet cousin by remaining committed ideology and directed with strong, unitary leadership.

Xi Jinping at a CPC meeting

With Mr. Xi — the most authoritarian Chinese leader since Mao Zedong, in charge, it is a bit difficult to imagine that the crisis will result in political reforms in China, especially since finding scapegoats, tightening controls and restrictions, and plugging gaps in its health system is simpler than having him and the party to introspect. COVID-19 may be affecting millions of lives around the world, but it has not changed modern China’s foundational fact: For the CPC, the party is the only life that really matters.

Also Read: INDIA CAN BENEFIT FROM THE CORONA CRISIS – HERE’S HOW

IMPLICATIONS FOR INDIA

I personally feel that India will be benefited, in either of the cases. If CPC continues to hold on to power, it is for sure that a majority of the companies will move their manufacturing out of China, mostly to India. And if miraculously the CPC fails to retain power, the just-born ‘democratic’ China (hopefully) will take time to stabilize, which can buy India some time to catch up to it, both economically and militarily. Another advantage will come India’s way: The chance of a serious aggression between two democracies with not much ideological difference very low and hence a two-front war will become a remote possibility.

Undoubtedly, the Coronavirus will affect the Chinese economy and perhaps diminish its external ambitions; a global economic downturn will affect the progress made by its BRI (of which CPEC passing through POK is an integral part) and String of Pearls, both of which are seen as a threat to India’s national security.

FINAL THOUGHTS

In the post-Mao era, the Chinese citizens and the CPC have adhered to an implicit social contract: The people tolerate the party’s political monopoly, as long as the party delivers sufficient economic progress and adequate governance. The CPC’s poor handling of the COVID-19 outbreak threatens this tacit pact. In this sense, China’s one-party regime may well be in a more precarious position than it realizes.

Given the striking similarities between the series of events Chernobyl disaster and Coronavirus pandemic, it may be tempting to conclude that, just like the Soviet Union, Communist China cannot prevail. Then again, it would be to soon to come to such conclusions.

JAI HIND!