DID MODI FEAR TRUMP’S THREAT OF "RETALIATION"?

We Indians woke up to outrage on 7^th April (Tuesday) morning. All of mainstream and social media was filled with statements like – Trump twisted Modi’s arm and he gave in; India is down on its knees in front of the Americans again; Modi has sold Indian sovereignty and CoViD-19 patients’ lives to Trump. But, was it true? Let’s have a look.

THE TIMELINE

19 March – Trump mentioned “Hydroxychloroquine” (HCQ) for the first time in his daily White House press conference. He said that there had been encouraging results, among the Corona patients who were given HCQ and Z-Pak (brand name for the Azithromycin antibiotic).

20 March – New York Governor Andrew Cuomo told anchor Sean Hannity that he’s getting 10,000 doses of HCQ and Azithromycin and releasing it for a trial on 1,100 patients in his state, now the global Covid-19 epicentre.

21 March – Trump reasserted his statement on Twitter

HYDROXYCHLOROQUINE & AZITHROMYCIN, taken together, have a real chance to be one of the biggest game changers in the history of medicine. The FDA has moved mountains - Thank You! Hopefully they will BOTH (H works better with A, International Journal of Antimicrobial Agents).....

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 21, 2020

22 March – The Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) issued a notification prescribing HCQ as a chemoprophylactic (preventive) for health personnel as well as family members looking after a Covid-19 patient.

23 March – It was reported by ‘The Print’ that US placed order for a large number of HCQ tablets with leading manufacturers in India.

25 March – The Indian Govt. notified a ban on export of HCQ.

26 March – Alarmed at the prospect of hoarding and panicky self-medication, the central government issued a notification on listing it in Schedule H1, thereby restricting its retail sale.

4 April – Morning, Trump called Modi. In the evening at his press conference he said that he had requested Modi to release the supplies of HCQ “we had ordered”. He said Modi said he will consider it. He, of course, went on to say that they (India) make a lot of it, which is true.

5 April – Trump spoke with Modi again.

6 April – Reporter: “Thank you, sir, are you worried about (a) retaliation to your decision to ban (the) export of medical goods like Indian prime minister Modi's decision to not export hydroxychloroquine to (the) United States and other countries?”

              Trump: “I don't like that decision if that's er... I don't... I didn't hear that that was his decision. I know that he stopped it for other countries. I spoke to him yesterday, we had a very good talk and we will see whether or not that's his ... I would be surprised if he would, you know because India's [sic] does very well with the United States. For many years, they have been taking advantage of the United States on trade so I would be surprised if that was his decision... He'd have to tell me that. I spoke to him Sunday morning, called him, and I said we appreciate your allowing our supply to come out... if he doesn't allow it to come out that would be okay but, of course, there may be retaliation, why wouldn't there be?”

This quote is Monday's actual exchange between a reporter and Donald Trump. You can watch it here:

       The first thing that's immediately clear is that Donald Trump was not making a unilateral statement threatening 'retaliation' against India. He was responding to a question. And the question was whether HE was worried about retaliation to a decision HE took to ban exports of medical supplies from the US. The reporter who asked the question likened the situation to the Narendra Modi government's move last week to ban exports of hydroxychloroquine.

       This made the US president respond in typical Donald Trump fashion. Initially, Trump did not even respond to the question and instead spoke about his phone conversation with PM Narendra Modi and about how India "took advantage" of trade concessions offered by the US.

        It was only towards the very end that he said, "...if he [PM Modi] doesn't allow it to come out that would be okay but, of course, there may be retaliation, why wouldn't there be?" When read independently, the sentence does make it seem as though Donald Trump was threatening retaliation against India if it did not "allow it [hydroxychloroquine] to come out".

COULD TRUMP DARE

          America is going for elections this year, and Trump knows the importance of all the Indian-American votes, of which a majority have been to the Democrats, historically. He also knows that he has to turn some of those Indian-American in his favor, if he has to get re-elected. One should also remember the enthusiasm with which he attended “Howdy Modi” and “Namaste Trump” whose message was meant to be the Modi-Trump duo’s close friendship and co-operation. So, why would he destroy his “Pro-Indian” image, that would garner him a considerable number of votes, which might be very crucial for him in the upcoming election? 

          It is worthy enough to recall that America now considers India as a strategic partner, in the Indo-Pacific region. It also views India as a balancing power with the ability act as a counterweight to China. So, any act of retaliation would have damaged the bilateral relations between the nations and, clearly America has nothing to benefit from it.

        

        One should also make note that majority of the Americans, now do feel that Trump deliberately underestimated and hence mismanaged the Corona virus pandemic, because he was scared of an economic downfall. And this impression among his voters is not at all good for a man who is wishing to return to power. So, this “threat of retaliation”, in my view is a statement he made to get a “strongman” image among his countrymen and nothing else.

COULD INDIA DECLINE THE REQUEST(S)?

        India is the largest producer of HCQ in the world, and stocks it up in huge quantities for its national malaria program. It has been receiving requests from various countries, for the supply of this age-old drug, that is believed to of great help in humanity’s war against the Corona virus. But India banned its export, to prevent a shortage at home.

        MEA spokesperson Anurag Srivastava said, “We have seen some attempts by sections of the media to create unnecessary controversy over the issue of Covid-19 related drugs and pharmaceuticals. Like any responsible government, our first obligation is to ensure that there are adequate stocks of medicines for the requirement of our own people. In order to ensure this, some temporary steps were taken to restrict exports of a number of pharmaceutical products.” 

          From ‘Operation Madad’ during the 2004 tsunami, to evacuating Pakistani students from the virus-hit Wuhan in February, India has always lent a helping hand to the ones in distress. After all, India believes in the philosophy of “Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam” i.e. the whole world is one family. Hence, it would be utterly stupid to think that India will not export this ‘life saving drug’ in this “do or die” situation that has dawned upon the world.

WHAT PANNED OUT

          Now, the little point that was deliberately excluded in the chronology. Some media organizations, Time, livemint, The Hindu, and The Print, had reported on 6 April, 12 to 18 hours before Trump’s Monday evening press conference, that India had already decided to lift the ban. In fact, it was reported that Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro had called as well, and the ban was lifted for him too. It was all done and dusted before Trump’s “threat” the next morning. Please do remember the time difference between Washington and New Delhi.

             So, it was out of compassion and moral responsibility that India lifted the ban on the export of HCQ, and not out of fear or pressure from the US!

As the news of “ban lift” reached Trump, he started backing India.

Extraordinary times require even closer cooperation between friends. Thank you India and the Indian people for the decision on HCQ. Will not be forgotten! Thank you Prime Minister @NarendraModi for your strong leadership in helping not just India, but humanity, in this fight!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 8, 2020

FINAL THOUGHTS

          HCQ is a cheap, generic, mass-produced drug that’s long off-patent. India has the unique strength to make these for the world now. It will use it. CoViD-19 has made these drugs, usually sold in bulk, like a commodity, valuable to the world. If heads of state are calling in for these, it is India’s opportunity, an opportunity to help the world.

SARVEJANA SUKHINO BHAVANTHU!

JAI HIND!!

Also read: WILL DEMOCRACY SURVIVE CORONA?

                   EXACTLY HOW IS CHINA RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC?

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